WEEKLY WRAP: Asian HRC prices mixed amid firm offers, market uncertainty

06 February 2023
WEEKLY WRAP: Asian HRC prices mixed amid firm offers, market uncertainty

          Asian hot-rolled coil prices were mixed in the week to Feb. 3, as offers remained high despite a sharp decline in the futures while buyers turned cautious amid market uncertainty.

          Prices rose the day China returned from the Lunar New Year holiday amid support from high raw material costs and a positive market outlook.

          However, the Chinese HRC domestic and futures prices took a downturn thereafter till Feb. 3 when prices again rose, but buyers refrained from quoting higher bids.

          “Even if futures increase, customers will not bid higher immediately,” a Vietnam-based trader said.

          The Q235 5.5 mm HRC spot price was assessed at Yuan 4,150/mt ($615.89/mt) ex-stock, including value added tax, up Yuan 30/mt on the day but down Yuan 50/mt from Jan. 27.

          On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most actively traded May contract closed at Yuan 4,082/mt, up Yuan 27/mt on the day but down Yuan 117/mt from Jan. 27.

          Many sources could not comprehend the fall in prices over the week while a few cited thin trading in the Chinese domestic market.

          “Maybe it’s because prices increase too much previously, so now there’s an adjustment,” an eastern China trader said.

          Platts assessed SS400 HRC 3 mm thick up $5/mt on the week at $639/mt FOB China Feb. 3, but down $6/mt over the same period at $619/mt CFR Southeast Asia.

          Most mills were heard to be quite firm in their offers, though a few sources mentioned the possibility of mills lowering offers without revealing.

          “Possible for demand to not have returned before the 15th day of the Lunar New Year, there’s still hope of demand improving,” a Chinese mill source said.

          Another mill source said that they will wait until next week because lowering offers now would cause buyers to be less confident of the market.

          Market activity was quiet in the week as most buyers have not started purchasing after returning from holidays. In addition, the sharp decline in the Chinese HRC futures caused buyers to move to the sidelines as they awaited a clearer price direction.

          Sources said that overseas demand has not improved significantly, with buyers either not sharing feedback regarding mill offer levels or giving low indications.

          In Vietnam, some small quantity deals were heard concluded at lower levels, a Vietnam-based trader said, adding that demand in Vietnam has not recovered significantly so buyers find it difficult to accept higher prices.

          Separately, SAE1006 HRC was assessed at $651/mt FOB China, up $7/mt on the week. On a CFR Southeast Asia basis, the same grade of coil was assessed at $660/mt, up $19/mt over the same period.

          A major local HRC producer Hoa Phat Dung Quat Steel JSC announced new HRC offers for March-April shipments with about an increase of $58/mt from its Dec. 16 offer.

          Most sources found this offer reasonable for the SAE1006 grade, but there were market talks that the quantity offered was not much and some buyers would prefer other acceptable and stable quality SAE1006, such as the ones offered by Chinese mills.

          A few sources said that SAE1006 supply now is quite tight with inventory low.

          After Hoa Phat’s offer, market participants were waiting for local producer Formosa Ha Tinh Steel's fresh offers, which might be in the $680-$690/mt range, according to market participants.

          In India, an Indian producer said they have very limited export volume, so the focus is on Europe and they have no offers for SAE1006 grade.


Source : S&P Global Commodity Insights

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