In October, the domestic market price of hot-rolled coil and sheet fluctuates, with the fluctuation range ranging from 10 to 130 yuan per ton.

At the beginning of the month, it was under pressure to decline due to the accumulation of inventory and weak demand after the National Day.

At the end of the month, it slightly rebounded, driven by the rebound of futures and the recovery of sentiment. The high pressure on the supply side and the seasonal weakness on the demand side form fundamental constraints.

However, the cost support brought by the increase in coke prices and the policy expectations released in the "15th Five-Year Plan" will dominate the price recovery momentum. It is expected that the domestic hot-rolled coil market price will rise slightly in November, but the rebound height will be limited by inventory pressure and the pace of demand implementation. Market risks still need to be guarded against.

Outlook on China’s HRC Market in November 2025

 Market demand: The production scheduling plans for automobiles and home appliances have dropped again compared with the previous period, but the export market continues to improve. The effect of infrastructure rush construction has not been continuously released, and the demand in the shipbuilding industry remains strong.

Capacity utilization rate of HRC production line and resource supply: The capacity utilization rate of the hot-rolled sheet and coil production line is at a high level, and the supply of resources has slightly increased.

 Inventory: The monthly social inventory is likely to remain at a high level with fluctuations, and the pressure of inventory reduction has not been relieved.

Market price: It is expected that the domestic market price of hot-rolled coil and sheet will rise slightly in November. However, the extent of the rebound is limited by inventory pressure and the pace of demand realization. Market risks still need to be guarded against.