China’s finished steel exports in September reached a new high not seen since July 2016, totaling 10.153 million metric tons, up 25.9% year over year, according to China Customs data showed on Oct. 14.
Although steel exports are expected to retreat over the next three months, market participants said China’s annual steel exports are likely to breach the 100 MMt mark this year for the first time since 2016.
Steel exports in September also increased by 6.9% from August, up for the second consecutive month.
Over January-September, China’s finished steel exports rose 21.2%, or 14.106 MMt, from a year earlier to 80.711 MMt. Daily steel exports averaged 294,566 metric tons from January to September. If this average holds for October to December, China’s total finished steel exports in 2024 could reach 107.81 MMt, up 19.4% year over year, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Some market participants said competitive Chinese steel prices, caused by a weak domestic market, set the stage for strong exports. bookings from Vietnam and rushed shipments in September, triggered by Vietnam’s anti-dumping investigation into Chinese hot-rolled coils, also contributed to the hikes in September’s steel exports.
“The shipments to Vietnam are expected to fall sharply in October, as potential antidumping duty may be applied by Vietnam for October shipment onwards,” said a trade source.
“If the antidumping duty turns out to be high enough to block most Chinese HRC in Vietnam’s market, China’s total steel exports are likely to be dented notably in 2025,” the trader added.
According to S&P Global’s Global Trade Analytics Suite, between January and August, China exported 5.57 MMt of HRC to Vietnam, up 50% from the previous year.
If the trend sustains, Chinese HRC exports to Vietnam could hit a record high in 2024, after peaking at 6.96 MMt in 2023.
In addition to potential declines in exports to Vietnam for the remainder of 2024, some traders noted that China’s overall steel exports could decrease in the fourth quarter, as overseas order bookings have recently dwindled. China’s fresh stimulus, announced on Sept. 24, has driven steel prices up, reducing overseas buying interest and affecting exports in November and December.
