Japan’s Nippon Steel Corp. posted a 37.7% year-over-year rise in consolidated crude steel production for the quarter ended Sept. 30, at 13.48 million metric tons, the steelmaker said Nov. 5.

This rise was attributed to its takeover of US Steel Corp on June 18, which increased the Japanese steelmaker’s overall crude steel output to about 86 million mt/year from 66 million mt/year.

On a non-consolidated basis, Nippon Steel’s crude steel output from July to September stood at 8.50 million mt, almost unchanged from 8.49 million mt the year before.

“In fiscal 2025 [April 2025-March 2026], the manufacturing and construction industries in Japan and overseas are sluggish, and the global steel business environment is in an unprecedented critical situation,” Nippon Steel said.

Japanese steel demand from October 2025 to December 2025 is expected to fall 3.5% year over year to about 18.47 million mt, a quarterly projection from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, published Oct. 16, showed, while Japanese steel exports are expected to fall by 6.1% to 6.2 million mt in the same quarter.

“Excess production and an increase in exports stemming from the widening supply/demand gap caused by the slowdown of the Chinese economy are structural issues, and there are no signs of improvement; and the impact of trade measures on imported products is becoming apparent in various countries,” the company said.

From January to September, China’s exports of semi-finished steel jumped 224.1%, or by 7.423 million mt, to reach 10.736 million mt, customs data published on Oct. 22 showed.

Despite the bearish factors, Nippon Steel expects its 2025-2026 non-consolidated crude steel production to reach 34.50 million mt, up 0.7% from 34.25 million mt in 2024-2025. Its consolidated crude steel output for 2025-2026 is expected to surge 21.6% to 50.50 million mt from 39.59 million mt the year before.

Nippon Steel expects its global finished steel production capacity to reach 82 million mt in 2025, up from an estimated 63 million mt in 2024, thanks to its investments in US Steel and its joint venture with ArcelorMittal — AM/NS India.

On Nov. 4, US Steel announced plans to invest $11 billion by the end of 2028 to boost its growth in the US, fulfilling promises proposed for the takeover.

“The outlook remains uncertain due to the lack of visibility in US-China negotiations, which leads to a cautious sentiment across markets, including the US and Europe.  The further expansion of low-priced exports from China is exacerbating the downturn in steel demand,” Nippon Steel said.